Mystery score

Mystery score

Sunday, September 12, 2010

A Tale of Two Models

Yes, it's the Votemaster, at electoral-vote.com versus Nate Silver, at fivethirtyeight.com, oops, the fivethirtyeight blog at the NY Times. As the Votemaster says, it's his algorithmic model versus Nate's stochastic (statistical) model.

I'm going to suggest, going into this election season, that you read both these smart guys' thoughts on the election. The Votemaster is, in reality, a mild-mannered expat American computer scientist residing in The Netherlands, while Nate is a highly successful statistical analyst. (I wonder if he ever looks at public health issues.) Both of their models did well in the 2008 Presidential campaigns. In 2004 (sigh), the Votemaster showed Kerry winning. So keep an eye on 'em.

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