Wednesday, November 06, 2024

It's About the Turnout.

Like pretty much everyone I know, I'm heartbroken and enraged today. (If you're happy that Trump will be back in office, getting another shot at wrecking our system of government and our country, well, we have a problem. You may safely unfollow me here or on social media.)

I'll quote Matt at What the Fuck Just Happened Today about Trump:

Trump – the twice-impeached, multiply indicted, once-defeated former president – overcame 34 felony convictions, 88 criminal charges, accusations of insurrection as part of his attempt to overturn the 2020 election, civil lawsuit judgments totaling more than a half-billion dollars, allegations by his entire first-term cabinet that he’s unfit to serve, his openly fascist intentions, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, his failed response to the Covid-19 pandemic that led to more than 400,000 deaths from a virus he repeatedly claimed was “going to disappear,” his repeated overt acts of racism, at least 26 public accusations of rape, kissing, and groping without consent, his promises to prosecute his political opponents, and the threats encapsulated by the Project 2025 agenda, to become the nation’s 47th president. 

Yeah. He's manifestly unfit to hold any office, let alone the most important elective office in the world, one where he has the nuclear codes. And everybody knows who he is. 

Here's what I think happened:

2016  Clinton: 65,853,514*        Trump: 62,984,828

2020.  Biden:   81,283,50           Trump: 74,223,975

2024:  Harris:  67,825,418          Trump: 72,521,905

A couple of states are still being counted, but they won't make an appreciable difference in the above numbers.

  1. Harris's total exceeded Clinton's in 2016 and for all I know would have been enough to win in 2016.
  2. Trump's high water mark was in 2020.
  3. Overall turnout is way way down this year versus 2020. Biden got seven million votes more than Trump in 2020 and nearly fourteen million more than Harris this year. What. The Fuck. Happened. Everyone thinks Harris had a great ground name, a huge swell of enthusiasm, and the rage of women behind her. She also raised a cool billion dollars in three months. Who didn't vote? Who didn't care enough to turn out and keep Donald Trump out of office?

We'll know, I guess, when there are crosstabs and analysis of the vote.

* Please quote these vote totals any time someone tells you how unpopular HRC was as a candidate. So unpopular that three million more people wanted her as president than wanted Trump.

1 comment:

Toldain said...

The vote tallies are not final tallies. There are many, many votes still to be counted. Many are on the West Coast, which does things slowly.