Monday, June 08, 2020

The Shape of Things to Come: What 511 Epidemiologists Think

Epidemiologists: they're the experts on what we're going through, along with infectious disease specialists. And now The NY Times has surveyed 511* epidemiologists about when we might resume various mostly-public activities.

You can peruse the full results at the link, but here's the survey result that has arts administrators screaming, fainting, falling over, tearing their hair out, and wondering whether their organizations will survive:

Attend a sporting event, concert, or play

  • This summer: 3%
  • 3 to 12 months: 32%
  • 1 year+: 64%
  • Never again: 1%

That 3% for this summer is not looking at reality (every US musical organization has cancelled its planned in-person summer performances, as far as I know). The never-again group is tiny and I'm rolling my eyes at them. I mean, there are lots of illnesses you might catch by going out in public, and lots of injuries or accidents you might have, says the person who has sprained her ankle walking down the street.

I wish the 3 to 12 month group were broken down further, but it's the one-year-plus majority that kills me. And may kill organizations I care about. I mean, the English National Opera was already on the brink of collapse and is much reduced in the number of productions they do from earlier in their history. I understand that Peter Gelb is already starting to hedge about the Met resuming performances on New Year's Eve.

Folks, it's going to be a long and painful year.



*I can't help it, that looks like a phone number for something or other. If I dial 511, do I get the Department of Hopeless Causes, or what?

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